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8 thoughts going into LCS Playoffs Week 2
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After the first weekend of playoffs we've already seen one match end fairly predictably (minus a few picks) and another take us by surprise.
Let's get it.
**1. TSM**
Prior to Team Liquid's match against Cloud9, TSM would have likely been a solid favorite in this matchup. For the record, I personally expected C9 to beat TL in somewhat shaky fashion and then lose to TSM in the next round, with TSM dropping a game in a scrappy 3-1 win.
I'm now even more curious to see what TSM have up their collective sleeves going into this matchup. As we saw from TL just this past weekend, a lot can change and be prepared within a week. Similarly to TL and Jensen, TSM experimented with things that they weren't at all comfortable with during the regular season — melee champions for PowerOfEvil — presumably in preparation for the championship. SwordArt should be comfortable matching CoreJJ's roams and even if Huni doesn't best Alphari in lane, his map awareness has been better on average.
Now this matchup is significantly more interesting considering TL's Sunday performance. TSM have sneakily been the most solid team when it has come to the mid game in the LCS — trading whatever they can. Even when their execution isn't on point or they trade away something and don't get back the perceived value in what they are able to glean from the map, you can see the figurative wheels turning. With TL having demonstrated clean execution and visibly-increased jungle-to-lane communication (especially between Santorin and Jensen) this matchup just became more difficult.
**2. Team Liquid**
There were a lot of reasons to bet against Team Liquid in their first playoff match, the first being that it was against Cloud9, who had just recently bested them in their final match of the regular season. Cloud9 seemed to know how to make the game volatile in a way that TL did not like or know how to play around with their default to strong lanes and scaling.
Team Liquid turned this perception on its head this past weekend, with some of the cleanest play in single games that the LCS has seen all year. Yes, they lost track of Thresh in the Game 3 draft, but even in that game, I stand by the theory behind the Trundle pick into Xin Zhao (just not that early, especially with Thresh up) and they nearly won anyway despite a subpar draft. This isn't the TL that was promised yet, but it's a clear flash of how good this roster can be with better coordination.
Talking to both Jensen and Santorin, they cited TSM as a weaker opponent than Cloud9 despite their glaring 0-5 record against TSM this past summer. I can somewhat see the logic behind this in that the way that C9 typically wants to make the early game as volatile as possible has matched up well into TL's focus on laning and farming. TSM hasn't displayed similar tendencies, even at their most proactive this year. If TL want to win this series, they'll have to bring a similar level of execution that they had in the C9 series with continued or even stronger synergy.
**3. Evil Geniuses**
My favorite part of interviewing any Evil Geniuses player is the inevitable, "How do you feel about [x] matchup?" or "Who matches up the best against Evil Geniuses?" Admittedly, it's a fairly worn and tired question. It's also unfortunately something that is a near-required broadcast ask. The fun part about it is that Evil Geniuses players will always say "ourselves" or "Evil Geniuses" as their greatest opponent. Many players say this as a standard answer but with EG players, you can tell they genuinely believe it. They are both the best and worst: their greatest asset and their greatest weakness. They'll have tougher individual opponents on 100 Thieves, but have already shown to have a much better understanding of side lane pressure and how to cross-map.
Following the now-memetic Impact versus Fakegod broadcast graphic, Impact went about adding achievements that he felt the broadcast had missed on his already lengthy list. His next opponent is 100 Thieves' Ssumday, a player with whom Impact is very familiar, both from his time in North America and during Ssumday's initial rise on KT Rolster Arrows while Impact was on SK Telecom T1 K. This is just one of the many fun laning matchups that will come out of this series.
**4. 100 Thieves**
I can't believe we're talking about team identity again in relation to 100 Thieves but...who are they?
This is the question that many will be asking of 100 Thieves going into their matchup against Evil Geniuses this weekend. EG have a clear playstyle while 100 Thieves, despite having more draft flexibility with Abbedagge, lost their swagger towards the end of the split. A large part of this had nothing to do with meta shifts and everything to do with mid-game execution issues that were always present and just hadn't been punished by 100 Thieves' opponents yet. With two weeks to prepare, 100 Thieves have hopefully had time to shore up those issues while also preparing some spicy drafts that make the most of their players' champion pools.
One target point to keep in mind for 100 Thieves should be in the bot lane 2v2. Although Danny's laning has improved since his LCS debut, he and Ignar haven't shown anything near the calibre of FBI and Huhi in lane. It sounds odd to say with Huhi being such an important playmaker for 100 Thieves, but it may be best to make an effort to keep Ignar in lane and focus on contesting that 2v2 as much as possible.
**5. Cloud9**
My "Cloud9 will look better this playoffs than in spring" statement is looking worse and worse by the minute. They have the talent to turn it around, but even if they beat Golden Guardians on Friday, Team Liquid's sudden turn-around puts C9 on the outside looking in at presumably Evil Geniuses, TSM, and TL (or even 100 Thieves) based on these teams' recent performances.
The community is asking, "Is it time to talk about Perkz?" given his pre-season promises for not only C9 but the whole of North America as a region, this potential elimination match against Golden Guardians is oddly precarious.
That being said, it's not Perkz's fault that they lost to Team Liquid. In their one victory a lot of that particular C9 aggression came from Perkz spreading his influence across the map on Ryze. TL showed up with clear gameplans and in my personal opinion, significantly better drafting and execution that even with their improvements, Golden Guardians aren't likely to have. C9's mid game hasn't been all that great and will need to improve if they want to beat TL, TSM, or EG in a best-of-five. First they have to beat Golden Guardians, and while I'm still heavily-favoring C9 in this series, there's still that lingering doubt around C9 that's impossible to ignore. I fully expect them to come out swinging with stronger drafting and better execution.
**6. Golden Guardians**
Licorice against his former organization is one narrative going into this series, but more generally, Golden Guardians as a whole are incredibly interesting. It's rare to see a team so obviously focus on certain things in game — in Golden Guardians' case, early game Tier 1 turret dives — and visibly improve from week-to-week.
Golden Guardians also realize that they're the underdogs and use that to their advantage in draft. This team is not afraid to debut rumored strong picks like the Tahm Kench mid or go completely off the beaten path with a mid Kalista. Due to their draft flexibility, they could theoretically pin C9 down, especially if C9 continue to flex Veigo to lane and heavily prioritize specific picks for Blaber in the jungle.
Regardless of C9's lackluster performance against TL, this is an incredibly challenging matchup for Golden Guardians. I'm still not expecting them to win the series, but I am expecting them to go down swinging in the process.
**7. Dignitas QNTMPAY**
The Kindred mid (Midred?) for Yusui is what most will remember from this past weekend. While Dignitas proved both me and Hai wrong in their first pickup of it back in Week 8, that was a completely different draft with a dominant bot lane (Draven/Leona) against a worse team (FlyQuest) who picked losing lane matchups into Dignitas. I appreciate the effort, but it's a disastrous pick into a team like EG who play side lanes much better and have one of the best-performing laners in the league in Jiizuke. Giving him Lucian, even with Kindred's natural counters against him, is a bad idea.
What's more concerning for me than the Midred experimentation is the execution of their Yasuo/Gragas combinations. It's not a bad look for Dignitas, whose modus operandi has been: get mid/jungle in a position to go bot side and get bot lane ahead, but their teamfight execution was lacking as was their overall laning. Against Immortals, they'll have to be a lot more precise with their early aggression and follow-through with better teamfighting.
**8. Immortals**
Welcome to the battle of David versus...David.
That's right, maybe you thought I was going to lead off with Xerxe (who has quietly done so much for Immortals across the year, especially this past split) going up against a rising Akaadian. Instead, it's more about Insanity for me and how IMT plan their mid-jungle duo against a team like Dignitas who has a very clear idea of how they want to play around those two positions. Insanity and Yusui are alike in that both players are known for playing whatever their team wants them to play regardless of how weird or off-meta it seems.
Given how IMT's bot lane sometimes needs help from draft or elsewhere, it's going to be up to Insanity to continue being flexible while also matching whenever Dignitas inevitably try to snowball Neo and Aphromoo.
