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Events & Standings
10 thoughts going into Week 3
C9 reigns supreme as DIG and IMT struggle for a win. Here’s 10 thoughts going into Week 3!
Two weeks into the season and I’m already convinced some teams are doomed and one team will win the split, and [buzzfeed voice] you’ll never guess who it is. I’m not here to make you vague promises about how your team has a shot against Cloud9. I’m here to tell you they don’t so that if they do beat C9 (they won’t), you can screenshot this and force me to consider deleting my Twitter account. Here’s 10 thoughts going to Week 3!
**1. Cloud9 (4-0) -- Incremental gains**
Here is a [documentary][1] about Stage 4-2 in Super Mario Bros (according to PEMDAS you should read my article first and *then* go watch the video which is very good). It’s a 20- minute piece that goes over the decade or so of speedrunners trying to increase their time by manipulating tiny pixels to shave a couple extra seconds from their time. The first point I’d like to make is that gamers are very weird. The second point is that this is what it feels like to watch C9 this split -- they make micro-adjustments such that it is not a question of whether they will win but how they will win. They’re already so good that making improvements in NA is going to be incremental. In games where they fall behind, I find myself looking for angles and trying to predict how they’ll regain the lead. There is never a doubt that they will win. This is the same type of feeling I had watching SKT between 2015 and 2017 when they made three consecutive runs at the Worlds Finals. Am I saying C9 is as good as that team? No. Well, actually, they’re better since that team doesn’t even exist anymore (checkmate, historians). Look, we have a long history of futility at Worlds and nothing I say can change that, but being bad in the past isn’t proof that we are bad right now. If you aren’t allowed to believe in your team, then what’s the point of watching esports? NA fans should rightfully be excited about Cloud9, who should look to continue dominating to prove to themselves that the only potential challenge exists overseas.
[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1AHCaokqhg
**2. Counter Logic Gaming (3-1) -- Little fires everywhere**
The combined record of the three teams CLG has beaten this split is 1-11. I am opening with this stat because I am a sympathetic person and have been around this scene for a long time, which means I have watched countless little embers of hope flicker in front of the CLG fans. I’ve seen them flock to it like little moths only for that ember to expand and burn them up. This, friends, is my way of telling you that you should be extremely cautious of the strong CLG start. That said, in the spirit of what I said about believing in your team in the C9 section, also consider just ignoring me! Just because CLG has a long history of breaking your heart doesn’t mean they’ll break your heart again! Fool me once, shame on you, fool me every single split, shame on CLG. Something like that. And if nothing else, this is significantly better than the CLG of last split that would have been part of the 1-11 stat. At three wins, they’ve already matched their mark from spring, which is absolutely a sign of progress. So while I’m not at all convinced that they’re actually a good team, I am absolutely convinced that they’re not a bad team (or, at least, not as bad as the few at the bottom of the table). CLG has one tough game against FLY this week -- if they are able to put up a good showing here (or win, even), then I think we can start to reframe the narrative around this team.
**3. Evil Geniuses (3-1) -- All-Star mode**
Watching EG get throttled by C9 and then turn around and do the same thing to TL reminded me of how I used to play Madden NFL, which is to say I’d get smacked on All-Madden mode and then turn the difficulty down a level and win 77-0. Sometimes you just want to get 450 rushing yards with one dude, you know? Their win over TL makes it pretty clear to me that EG or FLY are the second best team in the league (I think it’s hard to compare right now because they play the game pretty differently), which is good in the grand scheme of wanting to get to Worlds, but bad in the grand scheme of wanting to win the LCS. I feel like NA teams in particular are so hyper-fixated on the failures that have plagued us on the international stage that we overlook the importance of the domestic title. My main thing is if you can’t even win the LCS, which historically fumbles at Worlds, then what hope do you have internationally? Is it enough to just make it to Worlds? I don’t think so. I’m glad at least that the teams themselves don’t seem to have given up on their chances of beating C9 (even if most onlookers have), and I hope that translates into growth that’ll give us an exciting rematch down the line (where they maybe don’t pick so many losing lanes).
**4. FlyQuest (3-1) -- AquariumQuest**
FlyQuest started a 24/7 [stream][1] of their aquarium, which is the perfect ambient noise for getting some work done (if you are into that sort of thing). However, the FLY logo being the big thing in a tiny pond feels a little too on-the-nose as a metaphor... After getting bopped by C9 to open the split, it would have been easy for this team to be rattled and feel down in the dumps, but instead they’ve rebounded to convincingly win three straight games. They are picking up exactly where they left off last split, which is in assuming an identity of a team that plays a standard and safe game. They are one of the least likely teams in the league to make an insanely bad decision, but that also limits them a bit when trying to face a team like Cloud9 that forces you to be bold. In a post-game interview with Pastrytime this weekend, I was glad to hear Solo’s response to being the second best team in the league -- he immediately defended that they should of course be considered the second best team and also iterated that they only have their eyes on defeating Cloud9. That, to me, is the only thing that should matter to LCS teams at the moment. If you look too far beyond C9 and start peeking at Worlds and whatnot, then you are just going to get clobbered in NA. FLY still has one of the most potent mid/jungle duos in the league, and with Mash being subbed in (and performing well), that might further solidify their identity as a safe team (WildTurtle being a wildcard at times). I don’t think even this iteration of FLY can beat Cloud9, but I’m glad to see them lean into their strengths.
[1]: https://www.twitch.tv/flyquest
**5. Team Liquid (3-1) -- Let Broxah smash**
How will Coach Jatt bounce back now that he’s on the longest losing streak of his career? Only time will tell (he’s definitely going to DM his old designer friends to nerf shit). After a strong 3-0 start, I was admittedly a little excited for the prospect of a TL that had returned to form. I wanted a world in which they could clearly establish themselves as a contender to the C9 throne -- this would have required them to win a convincing fashion against EG, who got destroyed by C9. That, however, would not come to pass. Instead it was EG who destroyed TL, and sometimes the LCS can be a rock-paper-scissors scenario, but I am not convinced C9 is playing that. EG drew scissors to TL’s paper, and C9 is going to see their fingers come out and just bite their whole arm off. Liquid is playing a little too slowly for my tastes, and that’s going to come down to Broxah and Jensen to adjust. Broxah in particular has shown in the past (especially during FNC’s Worlds Finals run in 2018) that he can play a high octane style, and to me that’s exactly what TL needs to turn to here. Without Doublelift, it just feels like scaling to late game isn’t as appealing of an option anymore. C9 is thriving because they enable Blaber to do as he pleases early, and I feel like Broxah has enough talent to execute that same type of style. This is going to require Jensen in particular to make some concessions, and if he is able to do that, then I do feel like TL has the players in place to be elite.
**6. TSM (2-2) -- Jeepers, creepers...**
TSM played Middlesticks twice this week and it basically went like Jeepers Creepers and Jeepers Creepers 2, which is to say the first game was just fine and the second game was bad. I would, however, like to contest people who said TSM lost entirely because of the draft in the game against FLY. It is possibly true (likely, even) that TSM’s draft was bad -- it was a low damage comp that would have trouble beating FLY’s tanks in the late game. However, judging drafts isn’t just about which team can win 5v5 in the late game. You have to understand that TSM’s win condition was *never* about winning in the late game, and in fact if it ever did hate late game at an even-gold state (which is what happened), then TSM was doomed. With Fiddlesticks and Lee Sin, you are theoretically looking to set up dives in the early game on bot lane. Syndra and Nautilus have very long engage ranges and as such the four could completely demolish FLY’s comp in the early game *if* they execute properly. The problem, though, is they failed on those gank attempts and instead spoonfed kills to the Aphelios. That’s the primary reason they lost, and to blame it entirely on the draft (which, again, *could* still be bad) kind of misses the point to me. If you really want to pin it on the draft, then you should step back and say that TSM pigeon-holed themselves into needing to win early when that’s not their playstyle, which is potentially fair, but I feel like if you can’t execute on early game aggression, then you don’t have a chance against C9 (and subsequently international competition), which is what TSM has stated as their goals.
**7. 100 Thieves (1-3) -- Ssumday over the rainbow**
100 having a pretty tough schedule to open the season is an excuse I’ve heard for their poor start, but I don’t really see how it gets much better. It’s the Summer Split now and you absolutely do not want to be hearing “well, your schedule was hard” because that means you aren’t part of the “hard.” This is a team that finished 3rd in the regular season in the spring and *should* be holding themselves to a higher standard. Instead they are here celebrating a win over the Immortals. That said, their biggest selling point is still there -- Ssumday finished the weekend with an 8-0-5 scoreline including a big game on Renekton (please keep giving him champions he can make a difference on early). I have said before and always will continue to say that so long as you have Ssumday on your team, you are going to be in a position to steal games from teams. And while IMT is a big disaster right now, 100 dismantled them in an extremely clean and efficient manner, which means that there’s at least still a clear gap between them and the bottom of the league. They started off slow last split too, so perhaps they know better than anyone how to bounce back.
**8. Golden Guardians (1-3) -- It ain’t gold, but it ain’t bad**
CLG and GG sit on opposite ends of the spectrum for me in that they have reverse records but I have conflicting opinions on them. Even though CLG beat GG, the eye test otherwise still makes me feel like GG is the better team. I am fairly convinced that CLG is not as good as their record, whereas GG is not as bad as theirs. Does this make much sense? Probably not, but it doesn’t have to. I’m not setting the betting lines. GG is a team that seems very capable of hanging in there with the top teams in the early game, which is a trait I value a lot right now when determining if a team is good or not. The mid and late game rotations and objective prioritizations are things that can more easily be fleshed out as the team develops its synergy, whereas early game is often tied more to individual skill. Unfortunately for GG, though, it doesn’t really matter how good I think they are because I can’t add a number to their win column. They have an extremely winnable game on deck against IMT, but if they choke that away and then also lose to FLY (which is a strong possibility), then we’d be looking at a disastrous start for a team that’s actually pretty solid.
**9. Dignitas (0-4) -- Worse times ahead**
It’s been a disastrous start for Dignitas to say the least, [infomercial voice] but wait -- there’s more! With TL and EG coming up, DIG now finds themselves in a position where they have to prove they belong not just above the bottom of the barrel but among a couple of the top teams in the league. They are major underdogs in both matchups and are honestly looking down the barrel of an 0-6 start, which would all but end their hopes of a deep run this year. The only upside at the moment (and for IMT as well) is that with eight teams making the playoffs in the summer, they still technically have time to get it together. And unlike IMT, there’s been a pretty clear bright spot on the team in that Johnsun is still looking pretty good. The rookie ADC seems to have built upon the experience he gained in the spring and has continued to elevate his level of play. The downside is the rest of the roster just never seems to be on the same page -- the game against FLY in particular just felt like DIG was always a step late to the play (which led to missed arrows or poorly timed TF ults). It almost feels like watching a team wrestle against its own indecision, like they have an angel and a demon on each shoulder tugging them in different directions. DIG needs to literally pull it together if they hope to rebound.
**10. Immortals (0-4) -- Sinking ship**
It’s not a competition (well, in a way it also literally is) to get to the bottom of the table, but IMT and DIG seem to be on the same sinking ship. They’re part of the chaos of the *Titanic* but it isn’t pretty -- they are not the band and they are not the captain or the old lovers in bed. So far IMT hasn’t even come close to looking good and that’s true across the board for the team. I feel extremely bad for Potluck, who may yet turn out to be a good player, but pros will always tell you that a jungler’s success is extremely heavily tied to his team. Unlike laners, they can’t just style on the opposition 1 on 1, and a lot of the moves they *do* need to make require some form of support. It is grim and only grimmer yet for them as they take on a desperate GG and the titan that is C9. Since their surprising start to the Spring Split, it’s been a consistently downward spiral for this team and it feels like we’ve at the very least approached rock bottom -- they’ve even tried roster moves already. Fans keep memeing for Xmithie to come back, but I don’t feel like that’ll be the fix -- it’s not like they’re just one or two mistakes away from winning games right now. There’s a lot to work on. I just don’t see a path back up for this roster.
*Header photo courtesy of FlyQuest.*
