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10 thoughts going into 2022 Summer Week 6
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Hello! Welcome back to 10 thoughts. LCS Roster lock happened on Tuesday. I also refer to Roster lock day as the “trade deadline”. It’s not as crazy as trade deadlines in other sports just due to the fact that there is so much that happens between Spring and Summer anyways, but we still saw some action. Also for the uninitiated, LCS Roster lock also means teams can now only pull from their players listed in the Global Contract Database for the rest of Summer Split + Playoffs!
**1. EG (9-2) - vs. IMT on Sat, FLY on Sun**
EG’s win streak is over! I’m torn on how I should react to their loss to 100T. On one hand, they lost a crucial Rift Herald fight that they ‘don’t normally’ lose and lost control of the game. On the other hand, they’ve been down 1.5k gold @15 vs. TL, 818 gold vs. DIG, 607 gold vs. C9, and managed to win all of those games thanks to clutch teamfighting. It’s true that they don’t normally lose that fight… in Summer Split. They lost that fight a lot in Spring. I think due to the fact that they take so many “coin flip” fights that rely on having higher player skill, that will naturally lead to losses throughout the season. I don’t think that’s a bad thing by the way. I think it’s going to help them win Bo5’s and it’s an aggressive tendency that actually gives them a fighting chance versus international competition. It’s just the dream of them going 17-1 is over. Even 16-2 I think is fairly unlikely.
**2. 100T (8-3) - vs. DIG on Sat, IMT on Sun**
100T look soundly back in form after their Week 5 2-0. They took down the top team in the league, and their largest underperformer from early weeks (Abbedagge) has completely turned it around and carried multiple games.
I think a comment that ‘100TalkPodcast’ left after Raz and I discussed 100T last week actually sums it up best; they wrote:
“Jatt, as a 100T fan and a Jatt fan who knows you don’t hate 100T, I think the reason some 100T fans are getting that impression is because we believe that the past two splits have demonstrated that for the most part you can trust the team to perform when it matters, but instead of presenting that conclusion you leave it at casting doubt. I think fans probably think they deserve to hear ‘well, they’ve made two straight finals and won one’ more and less ‘I’m just not sure they’re consistent enough.’ I don’t have a problem with your takes, but I can see where these people are coming from. Takes aren’t democratic, but I do think this roster and staff’s reputation has earned a bit more trust and a bit less doubt than you usually display.”
Basically, I’ve been calling them an arrogant team who doesn’t show up at the start of splits, and every time you turn off the engine there’s a natural question of what happens the next time you try to rev it up. At the moment… it seems like things are completely fine. WP to 100T for now; they are contenders.
**3. FLY (7-4) - vs. C9 on Sat, EG on Sun**
When you really analyze it, so much of life is based on expectations. When I ask the average LCS fan, or even my fellow LCS analysts what they think of FLY, the sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, and it should be! They’ve strung together a great 7-4 record to start Summer and they’ve been QUALITY wins. Several games they get early kills and methodically control the pace of the game, get dragon soul, baron, and push on to the Nexus.
Of course, this is because we didn’t EXPECT them to be a top team in the LCS. This week I think they’re going to be judged as a top team. It’s no longer an “upset” if they beat C9. In fact, I think you could easily make the case on paper that they should be favored versus C9.
Personally, I’m not ready to do that yet. But if they manage to defeat C9 and EG this week and move to 9-4, I’m going to jump all in on the FLY bandwagon. If they drop both games and end the week 7-6 though… all of this FLY hope is going to deflate fairly quickly.
**4. TL (7-4) - vs. TSM on Sat, C9 on Sun**
SPEAKING OF EXPECTATIONS… This team continues to be under enormous pressure to perform and they have now underperformed for 4 consecutive weeks. After they jumped out to a 3-0 dominant start to Summer, they’re a lackluster 4-4 and seem to be trying everything to fix it.
Pressure is nothing new for these players – they’re all incredibly seasoned LCS veterans. The worrying thing with this squad is that they seem to try something new to fix themselves nearly every week.
In Week 2 they drafted “too much scaling”, and lost to an explosive TSM early game and NEARLY lost to FLY. Losing in Week 3 to 100T was the last straw on “scaling.”
In Week 4 they slammed Lucian/Nami/Volibear in both drafts, beating GG but then getting outscaled by EG after jumping out to an early lead.
Week 5 looked like they were trying to go in the middle of both, relying on “power picks”. First picking Seraphine and scaling in game 1, but then slamming an early Draven in draft to try and overpower CLG. Another 1-1.
What will Week 6 hold? It’s hard to say. I want to see this team settle on a style though, because if they continue to meander around like this I can’t see them reaching their full potential.
**5. C9 (6-5) - vs. FLY on Sat, TL on Sun**
I called C9’s Week 5 “one of the most disappointing 2-0’s ever.” This was also after hearing Fudge talk about how: “we aren’t playing well, but we keep winning”. I can’t tell if this team is better than their record or worse than their record.
Based on the names on the roster, I’d say they’re **better** than their record. Nearly every player has Worlds experience, and the player who doesn’t (Berserker) is one of the most mechanically gifted ADCs I’ve ever seen.
Based on how they’ve actually looked in their games, I’d say they’re **worse** than their record. They’ve looked sloppy and uncoordinated. It’s hard to see who is creating the advantages for the team.
Balancing it all out – this is kind of a make or break week for C9. So far they’ve been worse than the sum of their parts, but wins versus FLY and TL would completely change the way I view this team.
**6. CLG (6-5) - vs. GG on Sat, DIG on Sun**
This week for CLG is last week for FLY. Let me explain:
There have been questions all split about whether or not CLG is for real. They started 3-0, and have been 3-5 since then. WITH THAT BEING SAID, two of those wins are against EG and TL. This week (logically) they should beat GG and DIG. Last week we had doubts over whether or not FLY was for real and if they could pick up “on paper” wins versus… GG and DIG. FlyQuest did and this week they’re getting the respect as a top team.
An 8-5 CLG record would be hard to argue against. Time to put some of that faith to the test.
**7. GG (4-7) - vs. CLG on Sat, TSM on Sun**
Hey, this team did a trade deadline thing! Cool!
It’s also not the first time they’ve done so. At the tail end of Summer 2021, GG picked up Licorice from FLY and he’s been great for them so far.
Looking back at last week quickly, it was extremely disappointing for GG. They lost to FLY handily, but then held a 7000 Gold lead versus C9 at 21 minutes. It’s one thing to blow a 7k gold lead... It’s another thing when it’s a continuation of a bigger trend.
In Spring, GG blew a 10k gold lead @30 minutes versus 100T, a 7.5k Gold lead @30 minutes versus FLY, and another separate 4.5k Gold lead @30 in their regular season tie-break game versus FLY.
Blowing gold leads is something that’s HARD for a team to fix. So much of it relies on chemistry between the players and learned habits from years and years of playing League. After blowing so many cumulative gold leads… I think they finally made the call that something had to change. For what it’s worth, I think the River acquisition is quite good. GG was already a good early game team and I think River will pair better with their laners than Pridestalker. I also think River places a higher priority on vision control when compared to Pridestalker so there’s a chance simply having more information can improve GG’s ability to close out games.
**8. IMT (3-8) - vs. EG on Sat, 100T on Sun**
This team has looked decent! I’m retrospectively glad I didn’t go hard on them two weeks ago because they actually had some excuses. Looking back at their last 4 games they’ve actually looked even better than their record. Their wins have come versus TSM and versus C9, and their losses have been to CLG and TL (and both of them were close games).
What’s more promising than the results themselves is how they’ve been achieving them. They haven’t simply told PoE to play Orianna and scale for 40 minutes. They’ve found ways to be more proactive in the early and mid game and they’re taking the game into their own hands.
Of course… I’m heaping praise onto Immortals right before they play the #1 and #2 teams in the league. I don’t expect them to beat either. Hopefully they can still carry the momentum of the last two weeks through to Weeks 7 and 8 to have a strong finish.
**9. TSM (3-8) - vs. TL on Sat, GG on Sun**
In the least shocking news of the week, TSM made another roster change (Soul out, Solo in).
I have to say though I’m a fan of this one. Unlike previous roster changes, I like the way this one was communicated, handled, and how it makes sense for all parties involved. Soul requested to step down from LCS, which makes sense. Last week he didn’t look LCS ready, and it’s better for his game, as well as fan perception, that he has more time to develop before he tries again.
On the other hand, Solo is an experienced LCS veteran who’s been to Worlds. He hasn’t looked very good in Academy unfortunately, but he’s still a viable replacement based on the circumstances.
TSM is still in an incredibly difficult position. Playoffs is 8 teams deep so they don’t want to throw in the towel completely, but it’s just looking more and more like a lost year for the team. They need to target the GG game as that’s the team they would be most likely to pass in the standings with a good week.
**10. DIG (2-9) - vs. 100T on Sat, CLG on Sun**
The towel has officially been thrown into the ring by Dignitas. They’ve had a disappointing Summer, they sit in last place, and they’ve traded away who many think was their best player in River.
The one bright spot is LCS Path to Pro fans will get to see some familiar faces in LCS. Not only is eXyu being brought back up from the Academy team (he played in Lock In while River was in Visa purgatory), but Hoon will be starting in top lane and Spawn will get to play at least another week.
It’s an understandable move by Dignitas to give several of their Academy players a shot in LCS as they set their sights on another rebuild for 2023.
