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10 thoughts going into 2022 Summer Week 4
LCS Break week is over! Onto Week 4.
**1. EG – Week 3 LCS Champs**
It’s hard to say anything negative about EG right now. They had a respectable 5-5 MSI Group Stage showing, then avoided the MSI hangover and sit alone in first place after 3 weeks. In fact, it seems fairly unanimous that they are the favorites to win LCS Summer and move onto Worlds as NA’s #1 seed.
Saying that out loud makes it seem rather… early. I agree that they’ve looked better than the rest of the league, but Bo1’s are a damn volatile beast. All it would take for EG to lose first place is a loss to TL on Sunday. Not to mention they will ‘possibly’ be a little rusty after what I assume was an extended break from practice to combat future burnout. So while I think EG is solidly a top team – I’m not ready to crown them LCS champs after just 3 weeks of Summer matches.
**2. TL – Expectations are too high**
I have to say.. TL’s expectations are astronomically high. They dominated Week 1. Dropped a game to TSM in Week 2, and lost a slow but close game vs. 100T in Week 3. This leaves them at 5-2.. And if they defeat GG and EG in Week 4 they will be tied with the best record in the league, and on pace to go 14-4 like they did in Spring. Yet… they still FEEL disappointing. Personally, I think that kind of external pressure makes it hard for the team to feel good about any performance. Dominance is actually EXPECTED from this team. Without the brand name and the expectations, TL's 5-2 start would actually be fine…
With that being said – They’ve got some issues. We’ve heard Bwipo talk about how the team wants to play through CoreJJ and Hans Sama. We’ve heard Bjerg and Santorin talk about how the team wants to be more aggressive and proactive. Yet, we haven’t seen that manifest on stage. There’s a stat I like to use to see how teams distribute resources. It tracks the % of CS a player takes post 15 minutes. It’s the most reliable way to get gold on your carries. Based on what TL has said.. Hans sama should lead the team in that category, the way Danny does for EG. Unfortunately that’s not the case. Hans falls just behind Bwipo in that category. It’s just another thing that doesn’t quite line up. They say they want to play through Hans but haven’t figured out how. They say they want to play aggressively but have drafted consistently for scaling. Also expectations are so enormously high that any misstep makes it feel like the sky could be falling.
If I had to guess.. They’re going to be completely fine. I think they’ll shift towards more aggressive drafts this week, and I think Hans will be ‘gifted’ more CS post 15 minutes.
**3. 100T – Why does this team seem boring?**
If anything.. Last week proved to me that 100T are still going to be contenders come playoffs. As much as people want to call the 100T vs. TL game boring, 100T still had to make moves to win it. Down 2.5k gold and 3 dragons to 1 at 26:30, 100T used a mid wave to start Baron and just.. Flipped it. Closer won the Smite fight and the Baron drew TL into the river where 100T could actually find an engage. 100T is still able to make tough decisions in the late game and execute. They have such a wealth of experience that they ‘seem’ to be able to turn it on and off as they please.
To answer my own question of “Why does this team seem so boring” I’d have to say.. It’s their early game. While they don’t rank near the bottom in early game kills or deaths, they do rank towards the bottom in overall early game performance. They are averaging -507 Gold@15, which is 3rd last in the league. Knowing that makes it all the more impressive that they sit at 5-2 and 1 game out of first. Ultimately.. I want to see 100T challenge themselves more, but until they’re able to break open some early game leads I think they’ll continue to feel a little… boring.
**4. CLG – What’s the next Seraphine?**
The CLG hype train is definitely VERY low on fuel right now. After a 3-0 start they’ve only won 1 of their last 4 games and currently sit at 4-3. Last week is actually excusable though, as they played against C9 and TL who are two teams they aren’t expected to beat. This week they’ll face IMT and 100T. A 2-0 would re-fuel the hype train, a 1-1 would keep them moving… and an 0-2 would definitely derail it.
The bigger question I want to ask though is: how can this team generate victories? A large part of their 3-0 in Week 1 was their mastery of Seraphine and how they were able to surprise and out-draft their opponents with healy poke comps. Since then, they haven’t had any big draft wins and with that – haven’t had many victories. I also get the sense that this team really needs Dhokla to perform well in lane to generate pressure on the map. Palafox moves well as a mid-laner but isn’t lane dominant, and while Luger is a solid late-game threat, he and Poome haven’t made a habit of crushing lanes. While I do think this CLG is noticeably improved from their Spring form, both in draft and how proactive they play the map, this week will go a long way in defining to me just how good they are.
**5. FLY – Best twitch team NA … or?**
What a wild ride it’s been for FLY so far in 2022. They jumped out to a 5-1 record in Spring, only to fall back to 9-9 and exit the first round of playoffs. Now at 4-3 through 3 weeks of Summer I feel like this team is… the best they’ve been so far in 2022? How does that make sense?
Feelings don’t really match these teams' statistics at all. Multiple people have talked about how good this team is with Twitch, yet they’re 1-2 with Twitch and 3-1 with everything else. They don’t seem like a flashy team but they have the 2nd best early game of everyone in the LCS. Weirdly, I don’t really know what to make of this team. When FLY plays TSM on Sunday, most of the conversation will likely be about how TSM succeeded or failed; but personally I’m quite interested in the development of this FlyQuest squad.
**6. C9 – More Yasuo**
C9 remains a difficult team to evaluate. They started 0-3 without having their full roster, then started 3-0 with Zven/Berserker bot lane only to drop a disappointing game to FLY at the end of week 3. This leaves them at 3-4 with a SPICY TSM game on Saturday and an ‘easier’ IMT game on Sunday. On paper this should be 2-0.
What I'm most curious to see is what they decide to draft. Jensen is definitely in a honeymoon phase since reuniting with C9, being allowed to play Yone twice and Yasuo once. It definitely looked a bit dodgy at times, but it appears that Jensen and Blaber are putting significant time into playing the harder to execute, more aggressive mid-jungle combos. With a player as experienced as Jensen, I feel like he will always be able to default back to his control mage picks of Orianna, Azir, and Viktor if necessary so I’m happy to see them experimenting early in the split.
**7. GG – Ambitious drafting**
If “Kayn is good here” is a true statement that the other team makes in the draft, then something has probably gone wrong. Unfortunately for GG that’s exactly what happened vs. EG! But honestly, it’s forgivable. They tried for a home-run draft vs. the 1st place team and fell short. Their other game of Week 3 was vs. IMT, the 10th place team, which they won. So at the end of the day… they were bang on expectations during week 3.
**8. TSM – What the…**
Depending on which day I write the TSM section it could be something completely different. This team has undergone change at such an incredibly rapid rate it’s near impossible to keep up, let alone accurately assess the success or failure of each change or decision.
To recap: They started Spring with Keaiduo and Shenyi, two Chinese imports that they wanted to develop with… while stating it was NOT a development roster. Those players are now off of the org. Between Spring and Summer they brought Maple over from the LPL and added Mia as a new starting support. This week, they announced that Huni is retiring and/or stepping down depending on where you read the announcement. They also announced that they had signed Chime from GGA and are immediately starting him in LCS. Oh, also Tactical is demoted to Academy and Instinct will be starting LCS. Oh also, Solo is their new academy top laner. Also they might be looking for more ADCs. Also they said Shenyi was DETRIMENTAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THEIR ACADEMY TEAM.
I’m sorry but it’s just too much too fast. I’m all for trying to make a break-week change to break the team out of a 2-5 malaise to start Spring, but the sheer amount of change they made all at once makes it too difficult to assess what each component change will do. It’s like a total shotgun approach where they’re hoping it randomly works itself out. To say the least.. They’ve managed to set expectations low… so at least there is a win in that.
**9. DIG – Who brings hope to this team?**
Something that’s not talked about much is the mental toll it takes to lose in a professional setting. It’s incredibly important that something can bring hope/positivity to a team to keep them on track. It can be a champion a team is trying to learn, an area of focus for practice, or just a good leader somewhere within the team. My fear for this DIG team is I don’t see any of the above.
They had a decent Spring Split, made a roster change and have started Summer 2-5. What concerns me more than their gameplay is their faces on stage. They are looking disengaged and I’m not sure how they can get their ‘energy’ back. The River hype from Lock In/Spring has subsided, but he’s not a liability. Most fingers point at Gamsu but honestly I feel like it’s just a rather lackluster effort from the whole team. On paper I think they have good players; they’re just lacking a spark to get them moving in the right direction.
**10. IMT – There was an open mid situation**
There’s an old saying: “If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all.”
