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Events & Standings
10 thoughts for 10 games (Week 8)
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The final week or the regular season is almost always dominated by playoff talk – this split is no different.
The battle for first is quite important. The top 4 teams start the Spring Playoffs in the “Winners Bracket” and actually only need to win their first series to guarantee a spot in Finals Weekend. Therefore, getting an easier matchup in the first round is massive. Based on Zven’s numerous interviews – he is a Golden Guardians hater. He’s also listed EG as the team he “most wouldn’t want to play in a Bo5”. Knowing this, C9 really wants the number 1 seed going into playoffs since Golden Guardians will likely finish 4th and face number 1 (C9 or FLY) in the first round.
The next race is all about jostling for position between 5th and 8th. Two teams will make the playoffs, two will be eliminated. 100T (7-8), CLG (7-8), TSM (7-8), and TL (6-9) are all fighting for those final 2 spots.
There exists a scenario where Golden Guardians either win a bunch and move up to 3rd, or lose a bunch and drop out of playoffs – but that scenario is fairly unlikely so I won’t cover it in depth.
Rather than list out the teams in power ranking thoughts style like usual – I wanted to add some context and predictions for all the 10 most pivotal matches this week on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Because why not try and predict all of the games this weekend?
**1- FLY (12-3) vs. C9 (12-3) - Wednesday**
First things first. The winner of this will (likely) be #1. The last time they played was way back in Week 2 when Winsome was supporting FLY and Diplex was playing mid for C9. FLY ended up winning some really crucial early skirmishes and blowing the game wide open for an easy victory.
I think the reputation of C9 has changed immensely since then, and I'm still blown away by this whole Emenes story. He won player of the week in Week 7. But let’s put aside all the stories of him being a “known toxic player” and just look at his playing career before C9. He played in the ERLs, in the TCL, in the OPL, and in the Korean Challenger scene. He’s never played in a “major” region and he’s been playing pro for 4 years. It would STILL be amazing that he shows up mid-split for C9 and looks, at times, like the best mid laner in the region. Now add in the fact that he seems genuinely nice and wholesome in every piece of interview or streaming content I’ve seen and I'm just genuinely perplexed. It’s an absolutely wild and amazing story to watch.
On the side of FlyQuest, their hype has died down considerably. If they lose this game, their yearly confidence will actually be at its lowest point heading into playoffs. With that being said… a win gives them an almost guaranteed first seed. They’re still really good.
My prediction? C9 > FLY
**2- CLG (7-8) vs. GG (9-6) - Wednesday**
Pretty cursed week for CLG in week 7. We ran multiple segments on the superstitions that CLG uses to achieve victory which… voids the superstition from working. [https://twitter.com/anddaniellesaid/status/1634386903943479296][1]
On the side of Golden Guardians, they have never made it to 10 wins, and I’ve annoyingly brought this up to the point where now there is pressure on them to reach the 10 win total. I’m torn on this one. On one hand, it should be celebrated when they have the best split in their organization’s history. On the other hand, if this is the first split in 11 tries they have a win-rate over 50% that’s a bit meme-able. I think I'm settling on the fact that they should be celebrated. It’s tough out there.
Prediction: GG>CLG
**3- TSM (7-8) vs. 100T (7-8) - Wednesday**
This is probably the highlight matchup of the day in terms of actually making the playoffs. 100T looked dead in the water heading into Week 7 having just fired their coach, but they made a remarkable turnaround, prompting new head coach Nukeduck to reveal his strategy on twitter: [https://twitter.com/Nukeduck/status/1634411159859363840][2]
But more seriously, Doublelift and Bjergsen have historically played the best when the pressure is the highest, and they now have the chance to greatly limit TSM’s chances at playoffs.
TSM, on the other hand, have exceeded expectations greatly but failed to capitalize last week when they lost handily to Golden Guardians. WildTurtle has looked quite good since subbing in from Challengers, and Maple + Solo continue to be strong team fighters. Depending on which version of 100T shows up, this is anyone's game.
Prediction: 100>TSM
**4- EG [11-5] vs. 100 [8-8] - Thursday**
As a note – if the record is in brackets it means I’m guessing what the team’s record will be heading into a game. Aside from the playoff implications this game has a ton of storylines.
- Bjergsen has never missed the playoffs in 18 previous splits as a player or coach
- Ssumday/FBI would have a chance to greatly reduce their former teams playoff chances
- Tenacity could pick up his first win vs. Ssumday – the top laner who trapped him in Academy for years
- 2022 Spring finals rematch
- 2022 Summer semi-finals rematch
- FBI vs. Doublelift
Should be fun!
Prediction: EG>100
**5- TSM [7-9] vs. DIG [2-14] - Thursday**
DIG has lost almost all their games – surely, they won’t ruin TSM’s postseason chances, right?
Prediction: TSM>DIG… surely.
**6- CLG [7-9] vs. TL [7-9] - Thursday**
ASSUMING TL beats DIG on Wednesday, this will feel like do or die for both teams.
TL has just looked like a mess this whole year. Last week was a bit of a surprise when they beat FLY in the first game, but they were then easily destroyed by C9 a day later. Their early game is so powerful we keep expecting them to pull it together in teamfights, but time and again they are falling short in teamfighting and coordination. CoreJJ said in a recent reddit AMA that, “The hard work will pay off eventually,” which will likely be true. “Eventually” doesn’t mean next week though.
Prediction: CLG>TL
**7- CLG [8-9] vs. C9 [14-3] - Friday**
If this is the actual state of things on Friday, a win would secure CLG either a 2-way tie for 5th or a 3-way tie for 5th, while a loss would likely land them at 7th, with an outside chance for a 3-way tiebreaker for 5th. A lot would be riding on a CLG win here – but likewise C9 would be going all out to finish 15-3 and get their #1 seed. Chances wouldn’t be great for CLG.
Prediction: C9 > CLG
**8- TSM [8-9] vs. FLY [13-4] - Friday**
TSM beat FLY once before…
Prediction: FLY > TSM
**9- TL [7-10] vs. EG [12-5] - Friday**
When trying to predict 15 games in a row, not everything can go as expected. TL would need this win to keep the possibility of playoffs alive, with a loss locking them into 8th place. The only way they win is if they blow out their opponents in lane phase – which statistically happens some of the time.
Prediction: TL>EG (why not?)
**10- IMT (Eliminated) vs. 100T [8-9] - Friday**
This is where things *could* get the craziest. A 100T loss here triggers a 4-way tie between 5th-8th, which would then trigger a randomized 4-team bracket to see the final two teams to make it into playoffs. It’s also a fairly *easy* game vs. Immortals from 100T’s perspective, only with massive pressure.
So, will we get a 4-way tie or will 100T make it in as the 5th seed?
Prediction: 100>IMT
**Final standings:
1- C9 (15-3)
2- FLY (14-4)
3- EG (12-6)
4- GG (11-7)
5- 100 (9-9)
6- CLG/TSM (8-10) (Tiebreaker)**
Scenario 31863 in LCS Spring 2023 Foldy Sheet – for reference. [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CTVyXNC2Cadr-kb6WrBP428kfwxRKFDXDkd-AcOGq1k/edit#gid=1085495711][3]
Big shoutout to @MZLeothechosen for making these sheets
[1]: https://twitter.com/anddaniellesaid/status/1634386903943479296
[2]: https://twitter.com/Nukeduck/status/1634411159859363840
[3]: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CTVyXNC2Cadr-kb6WrBP428kfwxRKFDXDkd-AcOGq1k/edit#gid=1085495711
