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10 thoughts going into 2022 Summer Week 8
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It’s super week! The last week of the regular season. In Spring, through 15 games, C9 was 1st at 12-3, TL was 2nd at 11-4, and EG was tied with Dignitas and Golden Guardians for 5th at 7-8. Fast forward 5 weeks and EG is lifting the LCS trophy while C9 and TL both failed to reach the finals. To say a lot can change from this point forward in the split would be an understatement.
**1. 100T vs. FLY, CLG, TL**
How many games in a row can they win? If they 3-0 this weekend it would extend their win streak to 10, and make them 9-0 in the 2nd round robin. This would be the 2nd longest win streak any LCS team has ever taken into playoffs (2014 Spring C9 rode a 13-game win streak into playoffs).
One of the craziest things about 100T’s win streak is that they haven’t even been behind in gold @15 minutes in any of the wins. The consistency of this team is off the charts.
**2. EG vs. GG, DIG, C9**
So EG lost again. How should we react? EG has lost to 100T, TL, and CLG, all the teams who are next to them in the standings. It’s possible that their dominance has been a bit overstated and we are in for an incredibly competitive playoffs.
I’m willing to say that being at home instead of being on stage made them play way more like a scrim, and that TL game was definitely a scrim where you would type “gg” at 10 minutes and go next. They haven’t played that loose on stage all year. Here’s to hoping that last week was an aberration and they can close out the split on a strong note.
**3. TL vs. DIG, GG, 100T**
The aforementioned “scrim” game against EG is still a huge momentum builder. After going 3-0 in the super week to start Summer, TL had gone 1-1 in 5 consecutive weeks. Breaking the 1-1 curse while also beating tough opponents in FLY and EG is a huge step forward for TL.
There’s also been a ton of talk all year about TL’s commitment to a style, or lack thereof. One thing that has been consistent for TL all season long is strong early games. It’s just been in the mid and late game where they have faltered. I don’t necessarily think that changed last week, it’s just that their early games were that much MORE dominant than usual. Personally I’d like to see them lean into that more and try to smash people. Not only do I think it gives them the best chance of coming back and winning NA, but it gives them a better chance of competing internationally as well.
**4. CLG vs. TSM, 100T, IMT**
So… CLG is… actually good? It’s a scary thing to type. In the past 3 years, saying that CLG is good all but guaranteed they would lose their next game. I haven’t been this excited about this team in a long, long time. They continue to win through creative drafting. They are showing more and more personality. They also have compelling player stories, as everyone on their team has been a journeyman league player for the past several years. They’re proving their worth as players so far this Summer Split.
Now it’s time to bring it home. Two times in CLG’s history they ended a split with a 13-5 record. In both those splits they won the LCS Championship. A 3-0 this week would give them… a 13-5 record. Listen, I’m not saying that just going 13-5 somehow catapults them above EG and 100T once playoffs start, that would be ridiculous. Unless…
**5. C9 vs. IMT, TSM, EG**
I’m pretty fed up with this team. We know this team is pretty loaded with individual talent. Berserker has incredible laning and teamfighting prowess, Blaber is a 2x MVP Jungler, Jensen is the 2nd greatest LCS mid laner of all time, and Fudge is a solid top laner with great game sense. Yet here we are going into week 8 and they still look substantially worse than the sum of their parts. The disappointing thing for me is that they had the Spring Split MVP in Summit and decided not to bring him back for Summer in small part due to the fact that they couldn’t play well as a team. Well, now they don’t have a top laner who solo-carries half their games and they haven’t been able to improve their teamplay to a point where it can generate consistent wins.
With all of that being said, C9 entering week 8 at 8-7 reminds me a lot of EG entering week 8 of Spring at 7-8. EG hadn’t put things together through most of a split, but the potential was definitely there to win the split. C9 needs to show us something this week.
**6. FLY vs. 100T, IMT, TSM**
Well, it was fun while it lasted. FLY is currently on a 4-game losing streak after jumping out to a 7-4 start in Summer. I think they’ll end 9-9, which is the same record they reached in Spring, and likely struggle to make noise in the playoffs. I don’t think that’s particularly disappointing, but there was definitely a moment in Week 5 where hope was at an all-time high for this team. Since then, their mid/jungle has struggled to carry games, and Phillip, their rookie top laner, has made some rather important macro mistakes at pivotal times in their games. I want to be wrong about this team, I’d love it if they could 3-0 this week and make some noise in playoffs – it’s just the last two weeks have me lacking confidence in this group.
**7. TSM vs. CLG, C9, FLY**
Well, I made a bet during Week 2 on the LCS analyst desk where we had to decide which team “outside the top 4” would make the top 5. Raz picked CLG, Mark picked FLY, and I picked TSM. Hope was high back in Week 2… Maple had just taken down Bjergsen and the 2021 Summer MVP Spica was speaking highly of him and looking happy and motivated.
Technically, it’s still possible! It just takes:
TSM beating CLG, C9, and FLY
C9 losing to IMT, TSM, and EG
FLY losing to either 100T or IMT
TSM winning tiebreaker versus C9
Honestly – there's no flippin chance that happens… but one can dream. TSM is rightly focused on trying to improve, as it’s very likely they can clinch top 8 this week and still have a ‘very’ outside chance in playoffs.
8. GG vs. CLG, C9, FLY
Well, it looks like Golden Guardians is in a wee bit of turmoil. They have changed their roster in two consecutive weeks and currently sport the longest losing streak in the LCS at 6 games. To top it off [they announced][1] the release of their longtime GM Danan on Wednesday:
[1]: https://twitter.com/GoldenGuardians/status/1557429444024811521?s=20&t=pCLtNmzGaRCf5XumzH-_XQ
It’s likely that Ablazeolive and Olleh will be back in the lineup for the final week of the split – as Golden Guardians try to salvage what’s left of 2022.
**9. IMT vs. C9, FLY, CLG**
I feel like this team is in the similar mindset of TSM: Just make it into playoffs, and then who knows what can happen. Unfortunately for IMT they are 1 win shy of TSM and have a relatively difficult schedule this week. C9, FLY, and CLG are all difficult opponents.
WIth that being said, I’ve still enjoyed watching the growth of this team this split. I’m happy that, despite the terrible start, Kenvi has been looking a lot better. Together with the experience of PoE and Ignar I think this team has a chance at pulling off at least 1 upset this week and sneaking their way into the playoffs.
**10. DIG vs. TL, EG, GG**
Looking at their strength of schedule and their current win count, It’s a fairly safe assumption that this will be the last week DIG plays on stage in 2022. It’s definitely been a disappointing year for them. 3 years in a row of having a strong start to Spring – only to end Summer with a worse record. They’ll need to really dig deep in the 2023 off-season to find a plan for some type of sustained success.
