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4 thoughts going into Summer Playoffs Week 2
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Yes, playoffs technically started last week, but it was only 4 of the 8 teams. This week we’ll have all 8 teams playing, and 2 teams officially eliminated. Rather than going team by team, I’m going to be going matchup by matchup, from Thursday-Sunday.
In preparation for this round of playoffs I did some digging into stats to see if it could give me a clearer picture of where teams stand. I checked how each team performed in the 1st round robin compared to the 2nd (to see a positive or negative trajectory). I checked what their record was versus the top 5 teams in the LCS and checked their record versus the bottom 5 teams in the LCS. I also checked teams’ “early game rating (EGR)” and “mid-late rating (MLR)”, two stats from oracleselixir.com that I find quite useful to see if teams are stronger in the early game or in the late game.
Finally, I checked to see how in sync a team was. I checked:
**Who does the most damage (DMG %)
Who gets the most gold (Gold%)
Who takes the most “team farm” (CS% post 15 min)**
If these 3 things are the same player, I feel like the team has a clear identity. When it’s mixed it’s not necessarily bad but it all reveals to us something about the time. Okay, enough explanation of stats, let’s get into it.
**Thursday: TSM vs. FLY**
So what do these stats tell us? For me, it makes me think that I’ve been distracted and overfocused on Toucouille and Josedeodo. With Toucouille receiving more Player of the Game awards than any other player in the LCS, and Jose being so active early game it had me defining FLY as a mid-jungle team. What these stats show is that this team plays heavily around Johnsun. FLY is one of only two playoff teams (with EG Danny being the other) to have DMG, Gold, and CS% held by the same player. I think whether or not Johnsun can have a stable early game will be extremely important for FLY in this series.
On the side of TSM, Instinct has often been set behind early game due to a fairly weak laning phase, so it’s not too surprising that TSM is opting to give him such a high % of CS post-15 minutes. It does show though that it’s coming at the expense of Maple. Either Maple is grouping too often, or he’s just not given the adequate resources to match what his output has been in teamfights. In general though, stats are hard to draw conclusions from for TSM since their roster is still so new. They’ve looked a lot better with Solo in the top lane.
Overall, I think the form FLY has shown throughout the year versus the inconsistency of TSM make me hard pressed to predict an upset here. **Prediction: FLY 3-1**
**Friday: CLG vs. GG**
It’s hard to ignore the cliff that Golden Guardians fell off of during the 2nd round robin. Had they not built themselves a 4-win cushion in the 1st half, that 1-8 record surely would have ended them outside of playoffs. Their late season benching of PrideStalker and acquisition of River was supposed to be a push to reach the top half of the standings, but it did nothing to stop their slide. Their DMG, Gold, and CS numbers also aren’t ideal. It’s never good to have one player (Stixxay) acquire the majority of the team's gold and CS but then not deal the highest % of damage. Additionally, their early game rating of 38.4 is towards the lowest in the league. Their early game was a strength in the Spring Split but has unfortunately turned into a weakness this Summer.
On the side of CLG, they actually showed improvement in the 2nd half of the season after their “hot”’ 5-4 start to the split. Their 2-3 loss to C9 is also more encouraging than discouraging because I think it went a long way to prove that they aren’t frauds. They have the most unique DMG, Gold, and CS stats of all playoff teams. They are the only team who has a different player atop all 3 categories. For CLG – I think it makes sense. Dhokla takes so much CS because he’s putting so much of a priority on creating pressure in the side lanes. Palafox often sacrifices waves (and therefore Gold and CS) to roam with the team and make plays in teamfights. Luger fits right in the middle.
Overall I think this is possibly the most favored matchup of the weekend. Also looking at how Golden Guardians only has 1 win vs a “top” team (and that was versus C9’s sub squad in Week 1) I think CLG should win this series handily. **Prediction: CLG 3-0**
**Saturday: 100T vs. TL**
There are a number of standout stats in this matchup. First off, the 25.3 Mid-Late Rating is the 2nd highest ever since this stat has been tracked (2017). As a note, Mid-Late rating has direct correlation with Early Game rating. Essentially, Early game rating is the % chance a team has to win a game based on their early game. So if 100T had a 52.5 EGR, but then won 100% of their games, their MLR would be 47.5 (since 100 - 52.5 = 47.5). So to have such a high mid-late rating, this shows that 100T’s early game is decidedly average. This could be due to a number of factors. They did have a slow start to the split, with VERY weak early games. They’ve also heavily prioritized late game picks – so that will naturally deflate their early game stats. Even so, being 8-1 in the 2nd half, and so reliably winning games in the mid and late stages make 100T a powerhouse going into playoffs.
TL also has several extreme stats. 67.1 EGR is the highest of all teams in the playoffs, and they have a below average MLR. That’s not the stat profile you would expect from a “boomer” team. Everyone is so experienced that you would think they would naturally know how to win games. This has definitely been an example of having “too many cooks in the kitchen” and they’ve consistently looked out of sorts when trying to actually kill the Nexus. Bwipo is also the only top laner who leads his team in Damage and Gold. So while the team went into the split trying to play around Hans sama – Bwipo has been their natural carry when the team is successful.
Overall, It looks to me like 100T has a MUCH clearer team identity, and has been on a clear hot-streak to end the split. This is perhaps the best modern rivalry in LCS, and I have to narrowly predict 100T to win this one. **Prediction: 100T 3-2**
**Sunday: EG vs. C9**
When I mentioned 100T had the 2nd highest Mid Late Rating ever, I neglected to mention that EG had the 1st. It’s actually incredible how they’ve team fought their way to victory so consistently this split. They continue to not blow people out in the early game (and have even been blown out in the early game by TL) but have put together the best regular season in their org’s history. So much of their success revolves around Danny. He just gets so much of everything. His laning phase isn’t particularly dominant, but EG will often play portions of the mid-game almost 4-5 so that Danny can get farm and solo turret gold. They do this because he’s so damn good in teamfights. The “concern” for EG is that their early game may be a bit exploitable against a talented team (like C9), and that they had a worse record in the 2nd half of the split than the first.
On the side of C9, their stats look somewhat similar to TL’s. Strong early game, not good cohesion in the mid and late game. I think that’s indicative of a team who was put together after the split started. Berserker is possibly the most talented player on this team, and I expect the series to be decided on who can enable their carry for the most success. In my opinion, Berserker and Danny are the two best teamfighting ADCs in the LCS.
On paper, 15-3 versus 10-8 should land EG as solid favorites, but I worry that EG may come into this series riding the confidence of a dominant regular season. I think C9 is a team that has the potential to match them mechanically, and if they have a “good day”, they could pull off the upset. With that being said, I just can’t predict against the 15-3 defending LCS Champs, but I can at least expect it to be close. **Prediction: EG 3-2**
