**1st thought: Prelude**
Yes, I’m juicing the stats this week.
Ever since the LCS switched to this playoff format in 2020, I’ve always been fascinated by week 3. The Upper Bracket Finals – while they have the two best teams in the LCS, are largely an exhibition. In the past 4 playoffs, the winner of the Upper Bracket Finals has only managed to win the LCS title once (2021 Spring C9). 2020 Summer FLY, 2021 Summer TL, and 2022 Spring 100T all fell in the finals to a Lower Bracket opponent in the final.
The most interesting part of this weekend is the battle for 3rd. It’s as high stakes as it gets with 3 teams getting eliminated, and the requirement of winning 2 Bo5’s on the weekend to stay alive. It’s additionally important with Worlds in North America this year. Not since 2016 have these organizations had the chance to play in front of an NA crowd at Worlds. It’s been a 6+ year wait, and only 1 of TL, EG, CLG, and TSM will be granted that opportunity at the end of this week. Let’s get into it.
**2nd thought: Counter Logic Gaming**
By standard “power ranking” metrics, CLG have an incredibly low chance of winning 2 Bo5’s this weekend; having barely won their first Bo5 since 2018 last weekend by squeaking past Golden Guardians in 5 games. By “hopium” metrics however, they actually have a decent shot. Consider this: CLG took C9 to a close 5th and final game… The same C9 that took down EG and moved on to the Winners’ Bracket Final. So which CLG will we get? The version that played against C9 or the version that we saw last week versus GG?
Likely it’s going to be a little bit of both. I feel like during the GG series CLG was heavily limited by the Yone ban – a champion that CLG can flex across two roles and also fits extremely well into CLG’s incredibly aggressive teamfighting style. I also think that CLG had too conservative of a mindset versus GG – opting often for late game compositions because they were just better than GG. They need to channel the fact that they are an underdog and be willing to opt into massive risks against TL if they want to take them down.
**3rd thought: Team Liquid**
Well isn’t this quite the predicament for TL to find themselves in? A team that was not only built to win – but to dominate, now has to beat CLG and likely EG just to guarantee themselves top 3. How did they get here? Well, Closer kicked them down here. In case you missed it, Closer had one of the clutchest performances in LCS history in game 5 versus TL last week, where he found three separate occasions to Lee Sin kick Hans sama’s fed Miss Fortune into certain doom. But honestly, TL’s struggles started long before Closer’s Lee Sin.
I feel like TL has done themselves a disservice by continuing the mantra of “anything but first is a failure.” While that may be the way that the org sees it, it robs the players of small wins and accomplishments throughout the year. Won 14 games in Spring? Failure. Went 3-0 but then 1-1? Failure. Finished 3rd in the Summer Split regular season? Wow, so bad. TL’s inability to appreciate or celebrate what would be noteworthy achievements for almost any other org has made the pressure placed upon them so heavy that I fear they could collapse. The pressure is also at its highest this weekend. Not only do they likely have to beat EG but getting through CLG isn’t going to be easy. TL fell to them once already in the Summer Split and playing with the type of pressure that TL has put on themselves is incredibly difficult. They’ve also still failed to settle on a consistent “style” with which to play the game.
As I’ve said all year, talent is there for this team. They still have an incredibly strong early game and they still haven’t been able to come together and teamfight like an elite team. At this point I’m not expecting them to improve dramatically in a week – and it’s going to be a close call to see if their current level is enough to get them to the finish line.
**4th thought: TSM**
Wait, TSM is still alive? This was definitely unexpected after Week 5 when they were sitting at 3-8 and benched half of their roster. But let’s take a positive view here. How can they win versus EG? While it’s very unlikely, I think there’s a path. Here it is:
- Tactical dumpsters Danny in lane.
- Solo goes toe to toe with Impact.
- Spica (2021 MVP) pops off.
All 3 of those things could actually happen, right? Tactical has actually only played versus Danny 6 times. Danny has the upper hand but Tactical is within 35 DPM despite being on the losing side 4 times. Solo is 8-11 versus Impact, but has actually averaged +5.6 CS@15 minutes. Spica bouncing back from his 0-10 Vi game shows that, while he’s inconsistent, he can still avoid tilting in the middle of a series. Plus he was actually the MVP 1 year ago today. (hopium)
EG is actually really good, so there’s that. But keep the hope alive, fam.
**5th thought: EG**
As happy as I was to correctly flip-flop on the day of broadcast and be the only person of 16 to predict that C9 would beat EG… I’m kind of sad about it. If any team deserves to go to Worlds after what they’ve accomplished in 2022, it’s EG. They won the Spring Split, they represented NA extremely well at MSI, and they went 15-3 in the regular season. They did this all while bringing two new NA stars into the league that started from their development rosters in Jojo and Danny. It’s this kind of thing that Championship points used to help with – but were removed in favor of the current format. I definitely don’t want to get into a debate about Worlds qualification but if EG somehow doesn’t go to Worlds I'll just be… sad.
So how do they bounce back? My hope is they don’t overreact to the loss versus C9. EG got to this place by letting Inspired carry early and mid game. They then funneled as much gold as possible onto Danny who would be able to carry late game teamfights. Losing a series 3-1 can change the way you look at that though. In game 2 of their C9 series they banned THREE ADCs as the red side team. Danny doesn’t have a preference for Kalista, Lucian, OR Draven (3 fairly meta ADCs). My opinion here is... He shouldn’t. Those champions don’t fit Danny’s style and EG can definitely win without them. He just needs to be solid *enough* against them in lane to prevent them from taking over the game (which can be helped if Inspired and Jojo play well mid-jungle) and then EG can continue on with business as usual.
Truth be told though I don’t know what will happen. C9 exposed some real vulnerabilities for EG and it’s going to be fascinating to see how they respond.
**6th thought: 100T**
The hardest thing about being in the Winners’ Bracket Final is keeping your focus up. I asked Huhi at the end of the regular season who he thought would win if TL played C9 in playoffs and he instantly replied “TL”. My impression is that 100T saw TL as a significantly stronger opponent compared to C9. I’m curious how much that perception changed after watching the EG series.
There’s a definite risk here that 100T relaxes a bit now that they’ve qualified for Worlds and their “harder” opponent is out of the way.
Taking a step back a bit though I want to appreciate what this team has done. 2021 Summer Champs, 2022 Spring 2nd place, and now guaranteed top 3 in 2022 Summer. That kind of sustained success doesn’t come easy. They’ve done it by sticking with the same 5 players, and by consistently looking to improve their game while pacing themselves. They don’t look dominant in the regular season, but that always leaves something in the tank when they need to perform in the back half of splits and in playoffs. Hopefully, they don’t let up versus C9 and can continue to show that they are the best team in the LCS.
A really interesting side plot here is they lose a lot of scrims. It’s definitely a contributing factor to other teams not giving them sufficient respect on stage. From what I hear, the difference in their quality of play from scrim to stage is larger than any other team. Wild.
**7th Thought: C9**
No team is happier right now than C9. For the entire split they felt like they were on the outside looking in to Worlds qualification as the 4th best team. There was also just so much significance in what happened during their win versus EG that I want to re-state some of it here:
- Zven, who used to lane with Vulcan and role-swapped 3 months ago, beat his old lane opponent to qualify for Worlds
- Jensen, a player who TL replaced with Bjergsen, and who did not play pro-league in spring, qualified for his record 8th consecutive Worlds
- Fudge, despite trying out Mid for a few months, qualified for his 3rd Worlds as a top laner.
- Blaber killed so many crabs
At this point I feel like C9 is playing with house money. Despite beating EG this past week I don’t really think people expect them to go on and win the split. So why not just go and do it? I’ve spoken before about how I think, especially in League of Legends, it’s easier to play as the underdog. It allows you to take more risk and go into the match feeling less pressure. I think C9 is perfectly situated to continue on their way to Finals.
**8th Thought: TL vs. CLG prediction**
TL 3-1
**9th Thought: EG vs. TSM prediction**
EG 3-1
**10th thought: C9 vs. 100T prediction**
C9 3-2
**11th thought: TBD (TL) vs. TBD (EG) prediction**
Dude idk i’m too nervous
