10 thoughts going into Group Stage
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October means the changing of leaves, and the changing of leaves means it’s Fall, as in Worlds, where every team but one will Fall. After an erratic Play-Ins that saw massive upsets and all our perceptions about what regions are good be upended, we finally hit the main event. Sixteen teams enter, and half will be eliminated in the coming week. Here’s 10 thoughts going into Groups!
**1. Weep Little Lion Man**
SadLions.jpeg. MAD dropping out of Worlds here is one of the biggest upsets we’ve ever had -- it’s only the 2nd time a major region team has failed to make it out of Play-Ins (HKA in 2017) and the 1st time that a major region has dropped a Bo5 to a minor one. It’s a little less shocking because they also tanked the Group Stage (alongside LGD, who shouldered even more of the flame), but if you were to tell someone before Worlds that they wouldn’t make it out (let alone not even come close), people would tell you you’re an NA fanboy. Personally, I am sad they aren’t advancing because they were one of the most entertaining teams in the LEC this year and became a little famous for their post-game celebrations. Their collapse, though, was foreshadowed by the way their LEC season ended, which was an unceremonious collapse from 2nd place in the regular season right into a poor playoff showing. [Reddit voice] If you couldn’t see this coming, what are you even getting paid for, you freaking boosted ass monkeys? Look, MAD knows better than anyone just how disappointing this is, and this is going to be a long offseason for them where some members, including LEC MVP candidate Shad0w, are already facing calls to be replaced. That’s how much Worlds means. It doesn’t matter what you accomplished the rest of the year if you stumble now, and MAD are seeing the brunt of that backlash. But the reality of it is their accomplishments can’t be taken away from them -- once you beat G2 in a Bo5, you’ll always have accomplished that. Even just making it to Worlds is a thing we seem to take for granted -- as fans we *always* make it -- but there are hundreds if not thousands of players who will go pro and never even sniff it. So I hope we are able to acknowledge that, yes, this was a massively disappointing end, but that MAD still had an overall great year.
**2. Liquid and Talon**
For all the focus on what *didn’t* happen during Play-Ins, it’s a little lost that Team Liquid showed up and cleaned house. Sure, everyone seems to agree that TL was the best overall team for this stage, but I for one am not going to let people forget that MAD was supposed to destroy Group A and that Liquid (as an extension of NA lul) was lucky to even be there. Why not give EU five seeds and NA only one seed? Can Americans even count to four? You know the drill. The idea that Liquid -- coming off a split in which they barely lost two Game 5s in the Playoffs after posting their best regular season (which is Bo1 if you forgot) ever wouldn’t be a threat is rooted more in what NA was rather than what it is. [Bed Bath & Beyond motivational poster voice] Our past failures don’t define us. I’m not going to say that this team is 100% better than last year’s roster, but the jungle/mid duo that struggled internationally last year now has more upside thanks to Broxah, who has dominated play so far. He was literally signed for this stage. Tactical, a rookie, was arguably the biggest question mark for this team, but he’s thus far shown no fear, which means the TL duo is going to be one of the most (if not *the* most) formidable pairings in Group A. Over in Group B of the Play-In Stage, PSG Talon came out on top in what ended up being the stronger of the two groups (3/4 teams that advanced came, convincingly, from B). I’m a little nervous for them, though, because they’re thrown into the Group of Death. They could play well and *still* finish with 0 wins, and if that happens, you’ll inevitably see people talk about how they’d rather see the Kongyue and Uniboy version. I hope you’ll remember, though, that those two actually lost to the River and Tank version of PSG, which is why their actual team isn’t here. But maybe I am hedging myself too much -- maybe like NA, this is the year SEA teams can finally make a splash on the big stage again. So far, so good for both of them.
**3. Play-In Gap**
One thing I found myself in want of as I watched both #4 seeds struggle was to see more teams from the minor regions. How would the #2 seed from Brazil fare, for example? There’s always so much pressure on you to represent your region as is, and I imagine it’s even more pronounced when you are literally the only team from the region in attendance. Being able to split that burden and have a brother-in-arms would be such a positive bonus for most of these regions. Likewise, what if OCE was able to send another team? Could they scrim each other and actually provide assistance? It would definitely also give the fan base a lot more hope, and it wouldn’t feel doomed and gloomed to see your team start out 0-2 or 0-3 (then you could watch *all* of them start out poorly like us NA fans, ha). I’m not saying I disagree with adding a fourth seed for the major regions -- I don’t think most people really batted an eye at the prospect of doing so when it was announced -- so most of this yearning is rose-tinted for sure. But, what if, you know? A one year spike in performance doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but you do start to realize that the champions from these minor regions wouldn’t just be bottom feeders in the major regions -- sure, there will likely be a return to normalcy in the Group Stages -- but the minor regions represent the true rags-to-riches dream that League of Legends esports was built on. To see it flourish again this past week was great, and I hope it serves as inspiration to all the regions that the difference in skill is not so large as to be unconquerable.
**4. Group A**
1. G2 Esports
2. Team Liquid
3. Suning
4. Machi Esports
I’ve listed the teams for each of these groups in the same order as my pick-em, except for one, which I will not tell you because I am definitely going to win it this year. Group A is pretty universally regarded as the weakest overall group -- G2 does not appear to be the same behemoth they were entering Worlds last year, and then there are two #3 seeds and the PCS representative, who have performed extremely poorly in the last couple of years. G2 is still expected to win this group, and as [Jankos said][1], EU teams have historically had a tendency to improve as the tournament progresses. Last year he told me the same thing -- the boot camp and the practice at the beginning of the tournament made it extremely clear to G2 that they were still a step behind the curve, and I’d think this year isn’t much different. The good news, though, is that this tournament is all about fast you can learn and adapt and steal from the other top teams in the World, and G2 has proven they are more than capable of doing that. If Machi is able to live up to the promise that PSG showed in the Group Stage, then this group could be similar to Group C in that any team can reasonably make it out. However, I expect Caps to continue his Summer Claps form and be the key difference maker in this group -- G2 should top this group. That leaves a likely showdown between TL and Suning for the final seed -- no one is better at finishing 3rd in a group than NA, but this seems like one of their best chances in a long time to send a non-C9 team to Quarters.
**5. Group B**
1. JD Gaming
2. DAMWON Gaming
3. Rogue
4. PSG Talon
“Group of Death” is always a weird term to me because usually it’s applied to the Group with the best couple of teams, but to them -- in this case, JDG and Damwon -- isn’t this just the Group of Life? If you checked pick’ems, probably 95% (if not higher) of them are going to have JDG and DWG advancing. The idea is that it spells death for the other teams, but I don’t really like naming a group after just half of the teams. To me, a Group of Death is something like Group C where there are no easy outs for any team and any combination of results could happen and you wouldn’t be particularly surprised (though LGD screwing up so badly in the Play-Ins kind of puts a blemish on this claim). This is all to say that JDG and DWG are the massive favorites to take this group -- alongside TOP the three are widely regarded as the best teams in this tournament and are favorites to take the entire thing. One descriptor I heard of the LPL Finals was that JDG was the best team whereas TOP had the best players, so I am excited to see how well they fare against what should be the best non-LPL team in the world in DWG, who rode a torrent of success to dominate the LCK down the summer stretch. As for Rogue and PSG? Well, there’s literally no pressure on either of them. They can go 0-6 and people will just pat them on the back and wish them better luck next year. There’s nothing to lose, so go give the “Group of Death” your own version of hell.
**6. Group C**
1. Gen.G
2. Fnatic
3. TSM
4. LGD Gaming
This is *my* Group of Death, but also I would like to personally dub this the Group of Salt. Every single game and match result -- no matter what happens -- is bound to raise the salt levels of the planet to a new all-time high. Fnatic and TSM have the largest fan bases for their respective regions, and fans of both the LCS and LEC can attest to just how… uh... passionate they can be in both victory and defeat. Take that and slam them against each other and you get nuclear fission. Move over, Large Hadron Collider, quantum physics is about to be upended. It’s also especially interesting because these two teams have largely avoided each other at international events, so the store of ammunition has been stockpiling for years now. While those two are going at it, you’ve also got LGD, who have been memed so hard by the Chinese fan base that people started to worry for the personal lives of the players. One good meme that has resulted, though, is that fans suggested the only ways LGD could redeem themselves are to go on to actually win Worlds or to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 -- and, well, they better hit the medical lab soon because that might actually be the easier option at this point. Then you have Gen.G, who is considered by many to be the second best Korean team, and after they flamed out of Worlds in 2018, this will be a big shot at redemption for them, too -- any inkling of trouble is going to trudge up those memories. So, prepare yourself for a catastrophic level of salt.
**7. Group D**
1. Top Esports
2. DRX
3. FlyQuest
4. Unicorns of Love
TES is *the* pick to win Worlds this year thanks to being the #1 seed from the LPL, and until proven otherwise, I feel like it’s pretty safe to stick with an LPL team winning Worlds again. TES notably added Karsa and JackeyLove this year, who were both core to the success of RNG and IG respectively the previous couple of years, to go along with their star mid laner Knight. Is JackeyLove’s penchant of always making it to Semifinals stronger than Karsa’s penchant for never making it past Quarterfinals? Knight makes his debut on the international stage with a ton of hype behind him -- having been dubbed The Golden Left Hand (he’s left handed), expectations on him to perform are going to be enormous. Right off the bat he’ll be pitted against Chovy in what is arguably a matchup of the two best mid laners in the world right now. They are joined by PowerOfEvil, who has been an absolute rock for FLY (and had an MVP-caliber year in the LCS), and Nomanz, who styled on opponents in Play-Ins. Like Group B, this is a group where the top two teams are expected to pass without much issue, but I think DRX is potentially a lot shakier than the top two teams in Group B. UoL has also proven to be a surprising team with interesting flex picks and FLY was the 2nd best team in the LCS all year -- if you’re looking for a hot upset pick, then DRX falling is definitely a possibility. Then again, picking against Korea in groups seems has never really panned out all that well.
**8. The Faithful Shall Be Rewarded**
Alright, LCS fans -- some of you have been with me all year and some of you have been with me for multiple years. So you have heard me say already that *this* is finally our year, and you have heard me explain that what I mean to say is why not this year? You have heard me say that it doesn’t matter what happened last week or last month or last year -- none of that dictates what is going to happen now. Getting blasted out of Groups last year sucked, but it was fortunately left there in Berlin. You aren’t punished this year for what happened then. We were all extremely excited at the prospects of a 26-2 Cloud9 taking on international competition at MSI this year, and then COVID-19 took that away from us. And then C9 collapsed in the summer and left us with a giant “what if” feeling. But their collapse also left us with TSM, TL, and FlyQuest. No one can really say if it’s better or worse, though we may have our guesses. All that matters is how they perform going forward -- I know many of you might be steeling for disappointment already, and that’s fine, but that’s different from not rooting for them, right? As always, we should ask for the best from our teams -- why even play this game if you aren’t trying to win? Cheer for a win, and if they try their best and still don’t succeed, well… we block all EU fans on Twitter and repeat some version of this thought next year.
**9. The Bubble**
One thing that is maybe weird for fans is that the games are no longer being played in front of an audience, but I was thinking about this recently and I realized we’ve pretty much always had a small sort of bubble whenever Worlds rolled around. What happens is all of the teams are gathered into a single hotel and then they don’t do anything but shuttle to and from the hotel. Even in the pre-quarantine era -- this should not surprise you but maybe it does -- the players did not really go outside. Such is gamer culture (also, they had a little thing called Worlds going on that they needed to practice for). So outside of the mandated 14-day isolation upon arriving in China, the routine doesn’t change that much. What *does* change is the lack of an audience, and that’s something that I am extremely sad to be missing this year (as I am generally part of said audience). It can feel like a weird company line to say that fans matter, but not having them now makes that all the more clear. One of my favorite questions to ask players is how it feels to bow for the first time in front of the fans, and their answers are always a mixture of delight and surprise. That we’ve lost that this year is truly a blow, and so it probably amplifies the negativity they feel from online commentary -- maybe keep that in mind the next time you decide to say something mean. The players will continue to play for an audience that is both not there (physically) and yet there, like an omnipresent being watching over them. Surely it must be an extremely weird moment where online comments are further amplified because that’s all they see -- keep that in mind as you reach out.
**10. Final thoughts**
This feels like one of the most wide open Worlds in a long time in the sense of fulfilling the idea that anyone can win on any given day. The last couple of years have already trended in this direction as we saw Korea’s stranglehold as the undisputed best region give way to the new and more chaotic era of League of Legends ushered in by the LPL and the LEC. The Play-In Stage only further reinforced this idea as we saw the gap being closed between all of the regions, and I hope what we saw there was a precursor to what’s about to happen during the main event. Even the groups where I’ve outlined clear favorites have room for upsets (even you, Rogue), and it feels like we only need one or two such upsets to happen to fuel everyone else and get them to the level of mentality that says, “We can do this.” The beauty of Worlds is that right now -- in the days right before the Group Stage kicks off --- there is only the promise of what could be. Once it begins, the vast majority of those promises will be crushed. Only one team will ultimately win, and only one team will go home with no regrets. Right now, though, you too can close your eyes and see Caps’ bright eyes gleaming G2 rips off their headsets in victory. You can hear TSM chants drowning even the fireworks. Right now there is only possible. There is only promise.
[1]: https://twitter.com/G2Jankos/status/1310521026984308736
