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10 thoughts going into 2022 Summer Week 7
Red, Yellow, Green.
There’s a lot going on in Week 7 of LCS. This will be the first time LCS plays on patch 12.14 which is the largest patch of the Summer Split. It has 18 champions adjusted, but more importantly there are changes to every dragon (making them give better buffs but also making them harder to kill), as well as changes to runes, summoner spells and items. The overall stated goal is to make the game have more fighting, and to reduce sustain. Patches this large don’t ALWAYS have a large impact at first, but will definitely have an impact on the game long-term.
Also, there’s only 5 games left and there’s been some separation in the standings. I wanted to color code the teams into 3 categories this week.
**Red teams: EG, 100, C9, TL**
These are the hardest teams to play against. Since the start of the split they have been the main contenders for the LCS title. Playing against these teams has a high chance of ending as a loss. Wins are meaningful.
**Yellow teams: CLG, FLY**
These teams have clearly differentiated themselves from the rest of the LCS, yet they still haven’t proven to be consistent enough to join the Red teams.
**Green teams: GG, IMT, TSM, DIG**
These teams are bottom of the pack, if you see this team on the schedule you should expect to have a high chance of winning.
Also, yes. I know CLG and TL have the same record, and yes I know that CLG beat them the last time they played. No, I don’t think CLG should be a red team; this list is based on more than just results and also includes the perceived strength of teams + their history of success or failure. Plus it’s my article so I can do what I want :D
Anyways, I’ll be mentioning how many Red, Yellow, or Green teams each team has left on their schedule as a way to gauge their strength of schedule as they look towards the last two weeks of the season. Okay, enough preamble, here’s 10 thoughts!
Inspired is currently the runaway favorite for MVP. He’s won Player of the Week twice, and he has 58 kills as a jungler which is 25 kills MORE than 2nd place (Contractz). He’s seemingly always in the right place, and that place always results in him getting kills. Something that’s under-rated in Inspired having such a strong split is how much space Jojopyun is buying for him in game. Jojo often plays extremely aggressively in 1v2 situations, knowing that he’s good enough to get away with it. Little things like that allow Inspired so much extra time and freedom when compared to the other jungler, which only adds to his dominance.
Weirdly enough, this is a team that I feel like I have the best handle on in the LCS. I feel like I’ve “figured them out”. They’re an arrogant team who tries to turn it on in the playoffs. They can’t win the way they used to (diving turrets early game + snowballing) So they’ve begun just playing clean, consistent league and winning late game teamfights. They played easy opponents last week (DIG, IMT) and didn’t ‘smash’ either of them, but they did beat them. They also seem like a team who likes to rise to the challenge (and fall if there is no challenge). Due to that I think they have pretty much the same chance of beating GG on Saturday as they do C9 Sunday because they’re going to place so much more importance and focus on playing versus C9.
Last week was a GOOD week for C9. They had testing games versus both FLY and TL and managed to come out on top in both of them. C9 stock is through the roof to say the least.
Analytically, something they’ve been great at is securing the first dragon through bot lane timings. Looking at their last 6 games, they’ve killed the first Dragon in ALL of them:
9:54 vs. TL
5:38 vs. FLY
6:36 vs. GG
6:36 vs. DIG
6:06 vs. IMT
6:15 vs. TSM
5 out of 6 times they’ve done it BEFORE 7 MINUTES. This is far and away the fastest first dragon timing in the LCS. What’s going to be interesting to see, is with patch 12.14 there will be an increased importance and awareness of dragons. It’s also going to have more health and die slowly. This will fundamentally change how much tempo a team needs to take dragon, and how much they spend in securing it. What I know is C9 WAS the best at taking dragon early.. What is yet to be seen is if that can continue on patch 12.14.
The bad news for TL is they’ve gone 1-1 in 5 consecutive weeks. The GOOD news for TL is that this is the last week that can happen! (Super Week is Week 8). This team definitely feels ‘stuck’ so much so that I feel like I've been writing the same blurbs about them for all of their 1-1 weeks.
They have experienced players! They have a good early game! Hey it’s just ‘X’ number of losses! They have high expectations!
It’s just... The longer you have the same conversation the more apparent it becomes that they’re not a top flight team. The ONLY thing that is keeping this team in the ‘top 4’ for me is the knowledge that EG went through Spring with a 9-9 record before winning the LCS. It’s still possible that TL puts things together in time for playoffs and makes a run, but per my discussion with Emily on [last week’s JLXP][1], neither one of us currently have them predicted to go to Worlds which would be a colossal failure for this org. All eyes will be on TL this week as they face one of their toughest sets of opponents yet.
[1]: https://youtu.be/ee-bS8nhYJw
CLG has one of, if not the hardest schedules remaining in LCS. They also come hot off their 2-0 week where they took down DIG and GG with incredibly aggressive play. I really have to applaud the CLG organization for reaching 8 wins this early in a split. It’s no small task to pull a team that had perpetually finished in the bottom of the standings and re-ignite hope within the fanbase – that’s what this CLG team has done.
Gameplay-wise they’re also the most aggressive team in the LCS. For better or worse, they are always looking to fight you. This split aggression has been working MUCH better than it did in Spring. Due to the fact that they force so much action, I think they’re a threat to beat any team (although not reliably). So even though they have the hardest remaining schedule in the LCS, I don’t think it should be doom and gloom for this team.
FLY got kind of bopped last week. They lost versus C9 and then again to EG. Neither loss was particularly unexpected but it was a reminder that they’re still not solidly a top team. Something that was apparent last week though was how reliant this team is on Toucouille and Josedeodo to do well. If they pop off – FLY wins, if they’re held in check – FLY loses.
Opponent junglers had pop off performances last week. Blaber brought out Olaf and Blaber/Jensen had an impressive 2v3 fight win in the mid game. When FLY played, EG Inspired went 7/0/5 and completely took Josedeodo out of the game.
The schedule doesn’t necessarily get easier in the short term for FLY. They play TL and CLG, two teams who they are battling directly against in the standings. Look for Jose and Touci to have a bounce-back week if FLY wants to contend.
Things aren’t going well for the Golden Guardians. They made a trade deadline splash by trading for DIG River to try to spice up their early game and possibly make them more capable of transferring leads into victories. Unfortunately they then proceeded to lose to CLG’s early game onslaught on Saturday, and then TSM Chime’s Bard on Sunday. 0-2 is not the result you’re looking for after making a trade to contend.
This week… It looks like more changes are brewing. At the time of writing, AblazeOlive is starting on their Academy roster in Proving Grounds. Also, Golden Guardians’ Academy support Prismal is absent from their roster. This leads me to believe that at the very least, Lider and Prismal are scrimming with their LCS team in preparation for the upcoming week. While nothing has been announced, I’d say there’s a high likelihood that GG will have yet another starting roster for Week 7.
TSM has been under enormous pressure all year long. They’ve changed the roster around several times, and are still sitting on the outside of playoffs. Last week though, it felt like something happened with how TSM was playing. Chime picked his favorite champion (Bard) and just ran all around the map making plays versus GG.
It’s just one stage game of data, but it looked like TSM stopped caring (in a good way).
They may have entered what is known as “IDGAF” mode. TSM isn’t worried about going to Worlds, they’re not really worried about making the playoffs. Those worries just make them play worse. If they can continue to channel not caring as much I think they can pull off some upsets before the season is done.
IMT actually had a GREAT week in Week 6. They pushed EG the distance, and then lost a nail-biter versus 100T. They put up great showings against the top two teams in the league. Unfortunately for them.,. It still just counts as two more losses. There’s a huge mental toll that comes with losing. There’s an even bigger toll when you feel like you did everything you possibly could have (like Revenge’s Yone versus EG) and still come up short. This team has already been considered DoA once this year (before the break week) and came back stronger. We’ll have to see if they can do it again. This week they have the ‘easy’ schedule. If they simply play the same quality of league as they did last week they’ll walk away with a 2-0 and a burst of confidence.
Early reviews of DIG’s sub roster are about as positive as early reviews of Morbius (if you know you know).
On the bright side for DIG, they are the only team with 3 Green teams remaining on the schedule and may yet be able to pick up the first LCS win for several of their Academy players.
